{"id":13189,"date":"2022-01-25T19:45:07","date_gmt":"2022-01-25T18:45:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.com\/?p=13189"},"modified":"2022-01-25T19:45:07","modified_gmt":"2022-01-25T18:45:07","slug":"politische-risikofaktoren","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=13189","title":{"rendered":"Politische Risikofaktoren"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a>
Putin – Meeting with university students to\u00a0mark Russian Students Day<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\nGuten Abend Traders<\/strong>,
\n\"German\"\nneben den drei Zentralbanken, FED, BoC, RBA, die in dieser und n\u00e4chste Woche ihre monet\u00e4re Ausrichtung verk\u00fcnden, gibt es noch zwei signifikante politische Risiko-Faktoren.
\nSobald diese Risiken vom Tisch sind, d\u00fcrfte wieder Risikokapital an die M\u00e4rkte sp\u00fclen.
\nItalien hat mich mit „bianca“ positiv \u00fcberrascht. Ich hatte die Bef\u00fcrchtung, Italien f\u00e4llt Herrn Draghi ohne Gegenwehr auf die Knie.
\nRussland versucht alles, um den Westen vor einer Wiederholung des Krim-Fehlers zu bewahren. Fast \u00fcber Nacht, hatten Aufst\u00e4ndische die ukrainische Regierung \u00fcberrannt, und damit die russische Milit\u00e4rbasis auf der Krim in Frage gestellt. Diese aber ist eine legitim gepachtete Milit\u00e4rbasis aus Sowjet-Zeiten, welche Teil der russischen Nuklearstrategie ist. Daher ist ein Angriff auf diese Milit\u00e4rbasis, egal in welcher Art, ein Angriff auf die nukleare Balance-of-Power. Diese ist \u00fcber 70 Jahre alt und mittlerweile durch ein erstarktes Russland unter Putin wieder milit\u00e4rische Realit\u00e4t. Indem Putin die Krim annektiert und zus\u00e4tzlich versucht die NATO-Truppen aus der Ukraine fernzuhalten, reduziert er die Gefahr einer Gewalt-Eskalation. Versucht der Westen nochmals die Balance-of-Power zu brechen und damit das Gleichgewicht der Weltm\u00e4chte zu verschieben, so w\u00e4re Putin gezwungen zu antworten. Die USA dagegen, haben historisch gesehen, immer weniger Zeit ein erstarkendes Russland von der Bildfl\u00e4che zu beseitigen. Nach dem Zerfall der Sowjetunion, in Russland, Wei\u00dfrussland und die Ukraine, war es Putin der es den Russen erspart hatte, in ein Entwicklungsland zur\u00fcckzufallen. Jeder wei\u00df doch, diese Butter lassen sich die Russen mit Putin nicht mehr vom Brot nehmen, daher bedeutet jeder Angriff auf die Krim, einen (weiteren) Versuch Russland als nukleare Bedrohung und Weltmacht zu neutralisieren. Dazu stehen taktische Atombomben bereit, welche nicht die gleiche Zerst\u00f6rungskraft haben, wie konventionelle A-Bomben, und dadurch weniger moralischen Aufschrei erzeugen. Diese k\u00f6nnten somit im Kriegsfall eher zum Einsatz gebracht werden als konventionelle A-Bomben. Ein weiterer Gesichtspunkt ist, dass die USA faktisch aus der Genfer-Kriegskonvention ausgetreten ist, als Folge des Anti-Terrorkrieges. Dazu wurde ein milit\u00e4rischer Leitfaden in Kraft gesetzt, der es den Gener\u00e4len erlaubt, medizinische Anlagen und medizinisches Personal unter Beschuss zu nehmen, wenn diese als menschliche Schutzschilde missbraucht werden. Auslegungssache, wie bei dem Bombenbeschuss auf ein afghanisches Krankenhaus im Kundus dargelegt wurde.

\nSRF: Pr\u00e4sidentschaftswahl in Italien<\/a>
\nSRF: Ukraine, USA, Russland<\/a>
\nLaw of War<\/a>
\nKritisches Netzwerk: Bombardierung eines Krankenhauses<\/a>

\n
\nB\u00fcnyamin\n<\/p>\n

\nGood evening traders<\/strong>,
\n\"English\"\nBesides the three central banks, FED, BoC, RBA, which will announce their monetary orientation this week and next, there are still two significant political risk factors.
\nAs soon as these risks are off the table, risk capital is likely to hit the markets again.
\nItaly surprised me positively with „bianca“. I was afraid Italy would fall on its knees to Mr Draghi without a fight.
\nRussia is trying everything to prevent the West from repeating the Crimean mistake. Almost overnight, insurgents overran the Ukrainian government, challenging Russia’s military base in Crimea. But this is a legitimately leased Soviet-era military base that is part of Russia’s nuclear strategy. Therefore, an attack of any kind on this military base is an attack on the nuclear balance of power. This balance of power is more than 70 years old and is now a military reality again thanks to a strengthened Russia under Putin. By annexing Crimea and trying to keep NATO troops out of Ukraine, Putin is reducing the risk of an escalation of violence. If the West tries to break the balance of power again and thus shift the balance of power among the world powers, Putin would be forced to respond. The US, on the other hand, historically has less and less time to get rid of a strengthening Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union into Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, it was Putin who saved the Russians from falling back into a developing country. Biden can’t take the butter off the Russian bread, so every attack on Crimea means an (further) attempt to neutralize Russia as a nuclear threat and world power. Tactical nuclear bombs are available for this purpose, which do not have the same destructive power as conventional A-bombs, and thus produce less moral outcry. In the event of war, these could therefore be used more easily than conventional A-bombs. Adding to this point of view is that the USA has effectively withdrawn from the Geneva War Convention as a result of the war on terrorism. To this end, a military guide has been put in place that allows generals to fire on medical facilities and medical personnel if they are misused as human shields by the enemy. A matter of interpretation, as shown in the case of the bombing of an Afghan hospital in Kunduz.

\nSRF: Presidential election in Italy<\/a>
\nSRF: Ukraine, USA, Russia<\/a>
\nLaw of War<\/a>
\nKritisches Netzwerk: Bombing of a hospital<\/a>

\nBen\n<\/p>\n

\n\u3053\u3093\u3070\u3093\u306f\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc<\/strong>
\n\"Japanese\"\n\u4eca\u9031\u3068\u6765\u9031\u306b\u91d1\u878d\u30aa\u30ea\u30a8\u30f3\u30c6\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3059\u308b3\u3064\u306e\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u3001FED\u3001BoC\u3001RBA\u306e\u4ed6\u306b\u30012\u3064\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u8981\u56e0\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u304c\u30c6\u30fc\u30d6\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u5916\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3059\u3050\u306b\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u304c\u518d\u3073\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u51fa\u56de\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u306f\u300c\u30d3\u30a2\u30f3\u30ab\u300d\u3067\u79c1\u3092\u524d\u5411\u304d\u306b\u9a5a\u304b\u305b\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u79c1\u306f\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u304c\u6226\u3044\u306a\u3057\u3067\u30c9\u30e9\u30ae\u6c0f\u306b\u3072\u3056\u307e\u305a\u304f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3068\u5fc3\u914d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002
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\nSRF: \u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u306e\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u9078\u6319<\/a>
\nSRF: \u30a6\u30af\u30e9\u30a4\u30ca\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3001\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2<\/a>
\n\u6226\u6642\u56fd\u969b\u6cd5<\/a>
\nKritisches Netzwerk: \u75c5\u9662\u306e\u7206\u6483<\/a>

\n\u30d9\u30f3\u30b8\u30e3\u30df\u30f3\n<\/p>\n

\nGoedenavond handelaren<\/strong>,
\n\"Dutch\"\nNaast de drie centrale banken, FED, BoC, RBA, die deze week en volgende week hun monetaire ori\u00ebntatie bekend zullen maken, zijn er nog twee belangrijke politieke risicofactoren.
\nZodra deze risico’s van tafel zijn, zal risicokapitaal waarschijnlijk weer op de markt komen.
\nItali\u00eb verraste me positief met „bianca“. Ik was bang dat Itali\u00eb zonder slag of stoot op de knie\u00ebn zou vallen voor de heer Draghi.
\nRusland doet er alles aan om te voorkomen dat het Westen de Krim-fout herhaalt. Bijna van de ene op de andere dag overrompelden opstandelingen de Oekra\u00efense regering en daagden ze de Russische militaire basis op de Krim uit. Maar dit is een legitiem geleasde militaire basis uit het Sovjettijdperk die deel uitmaakt van de nucleaire strategie van Rusland. Daarom is een aanval van welke aard dan ook op deze militaire basis een aanval op het nucleaire machtsevenwicht. Dit machtsevenwicht is meer dan 70 jaar oud en is nu weer een militaire realiteit dankzij een versterkt Rusland onder Poetin. Door de Krim te annexeren en te proberen NAVO-troepen uit Oekra\u00efne te houden, vermindert Poetin het risico van een escalatie van geweld. Als het Westen opnieuw probeert het machtsevenwicht te doorbreken en zo het machtsevenwicht tussen de wereldmachten te verschuiven, zou Poetin genoodzaakt zijn te reageren. De VS daarentegen hebben historisch gezien steeds minder tijd om van een sterker Rusland af te komen. Na de ineenstorting van de Sovjet-Unie in Rusland, Wit-Rusland en Oekra\u00efne was het Poetin die ervoor zorgde dat de Russen niet terugvielen in een ontwikkelingsland. Biden kan de boter niet van het Russische brood halen, dus elke aanval op de Krim betekent een (verdere) poging om Rusland als nucleaire dreiging en wereldmacht te neutraliseren. Hiervoor zijn tactische atoombommen beschikbaar, die niet dezelfde vernietigende kracht hebben als conventionele atoombommen, en dus minder moreel protest veroorzaken. Deze konden in geval van oorlog dus gemakkelijker worden ingezet dan conventionele A-bommen. Aan dit standpunt wordt toegevoegd dat de VS zich feitelijk hebben teruggetrokken uit de Oorlogsconventie van Gen\u00e8ve als gevolg van de oorlog tegen het terrorisme. Hiertoe is een militaire gids opgesteld waarmee generaals kunnen schieten op medische voorzieningen en medisch personeel als ze door de vijand worden misbruikt als menselijk schild. Kwestie van interpretatie, zoals blijkt uit de bomaanslag op een Afghaans ziekenhuis in Kunduz.

\nSRF: Presidentsverkiezingen in Itali\u00eb<\/a>
\nSRF: Oekra\u00efne, VS, Rusland<\/a>
\nOorlogsrecht<\/a>
\nKritisches Netzwerk: Bombardement op een ziekenhuis<\/a>

\nBenni\n<\/p>\n

\nIyi ak\u015famlar t\u00fcccarlar<\/strong>,
\n\"Turkish\"\nBu hafta ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta parasal y\u00f6nelimlerini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olan \u00fc\u00e7 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, FED, BoC, RBA’n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, hala iki \u00f6nemli siyasi risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc var.
\nBu riskler masadan kalkar kalkmaz, risk sermayesinin tekrar piyasalar\u0131 vurmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.
\n\u0130talya beni „bianca“ ile olumlu bir \u015fekilde \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. \u0130talya’n\u0131n sava\u015fmadan Bay Draghi’ye diz \u00e7\u00f6kece\u011finden korktum.
\nRusya, Bat\u0131’n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131m hatas\u0131n\u0131 tekrar etmemesi i\u00e7in her \u015feyi deniyor. Neredeyse bir gecede, isyanc\u0131lar Ukrayna h\u00fck\u00fcmetini ele ge\u00e7irdi ve Rusya’n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131m’daki askeri \u00fcss\u00fcne meydan okudu. Ancak bu, Rusya’n\u0131n n\u00fckleer stratejisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olan me\u015fru bir \u015fekilde kiralanm\u0131\u015f Sovyet d\u00f6neminden kalma bir askeri \u00fcs. Bu nedenle, bu askeri \u00fcsse yap\u0131lacak herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131, n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesine yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir sald\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi 70 y\u0131ldan daha eskidir ve Putin y\u00f6netimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f Rusya sayesinde \u015fimdi yeniden askeri bir ger\u00e7ekliktir. Putin, K\u0131r\u0131m’\u0131 ilhak ederek ve NATO birliklerini Ukrayna’dan uzak tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, \u015fiddetin t\u0131rmanma riskini azalt\u0131yor. Bat\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini yeniden bozmaya ve b\u00f6ylece d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa, Putin yan\u0131t vermek zorunda kalacak. \u00d6te yandan ABD’nin tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Rusya’dan kurtulmak i\u00e7in daha az zaman\u0131 var. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi’nin Rusya, Beyaz Rusya ve Ukrayna’ya da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra, Ruslar\u0131 yeniden geli\u015fmekte olan bir \u00fclkeye d\u00fc\u015fmekten kurtaran Putin oldu. Biden, Rus ekme\u011finden tereya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karamaz, bu nedenle K\u0131r\u0131m’a y\u00f6nelik her sald\u0131r\u0131, bir n\u00fckleer tehdit ve d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak Rusya’y\u0131 etkisiz hale getirme (daha fazla) giri\u015fimi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu ama\u00e7la, geleneksel atom bombalar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcce sahip olmayan ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha az ahlaki tepki \u00fcreten taktik n\u00fckleer bombalar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle, sava\u015f durumunda, bunlar geleneksel atom bombalar\u0131ndan daha kolay kullan\u0131labilir. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na ek olarak, ABD’nin ter\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n bir sonucu olarak Cenevre Sava\u015f S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi’nden fiilen \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ama\u00e7la, generallerin, d\u00fc\u015fman taraf\u0131ndan canl\u0131 kalkan olarak k\u00f6t\u00fcye kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda t\u0131bbi tesislere ve sa\u011fl\u0131k personeline ate\u015f a\u00e7mas\u0131na izin veren bir askeri k\u0131lavuz olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftur. Kunduz’daki bir Afgan hastanesinin bombalanmas\u0131 durumunda g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi, bir yorum meselesi.

\nSRF: \u0130talya’da cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imi<\/a>
\nSRF: Ukrayna, ABD, Rusya<\/a>
\nSava\u015f Hukuku<\/a>
\nKritisches Netzwerk: Bir hastanenin bombalanmas\u0131<\/a>

\nSizin B\u00fcnyamin\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guten Abend Traders, neben den drei Zentralbanken, FED, BoC, RBA, die in dieser und n\u00e4chste Woche ihre monet\u00e4re Ausrichtung verk\u00fcnden, gibt es noch zwei signifikante politische Risiko-Faktoren. Sobald diese Risiken vom Tisch sind, d\u00fcrfte wieder Risikokapital an die M\u00e4rkte sp\u00fclen. Italien hat mich mit „bianca“ positiv \u00fcberrascht. Ich hatte die Bef\u00fcrchtung, Italien f\u00e4llt Herrn Draghi … Politische Risikofaktoren<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[244,30,237,245,69,70],"class_list":["post-13189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-captain-speaking","tag-biden","tag-draghi","tag-italien","tag-putin","tag-russland","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13189\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}