{"id":13229,"date":"2022-02-01T08:17:53","date_gmt":"2022-02-01T07:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.com\/?p=13229"},"modified":"2022-02-01T08:17:53","modified_gmt":"2022-02-01T07:17:53","slug":"central-speaking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=13229","title":{"rendered":"Central Speaking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\nGuten Morgen Traders<\/strong>,
\n\"German\"\ndrei wichtige Zentralbanken haben in den letzten Tagen ihre monet\u00e4re Ausrichtung verk\u00fcndet. Die Bank of Canada am Nachmittag des 26. Januar 2021 und die FED des Abends gleichen Datums. Heute Morgen folgte dann die Reserve Bank of Australia mit einem Statement by Philip Loewe (ohne Pressekonferenz).

\nTiff Macklem, der Vorsitzende der kanadischen Zentralbank weist darauf hin, dass die Antwort auf die Pandemie klar und deutlich verlief. Man betrachtet heute den Supply-Chain-Shock, verursacht durch die Ma\u00dfnahmen zwecks Pandemieabwehr, als gr\u00f6\u00dftenteils absorbiert. Der Leitzins wird in Anbetracht der \u00fcberraschend langanhaltenden hohen Inflation, steigen m\u00fcssen, so meint Macklem. Die Zeit f\u00fcr Notfall-Ma\u00dfnahmen seitens der Zentralbank sei nun vor\u00fcber und man werde mit dem \u201aTightening\u2018 beginnen. Dazu wird das selektive Market Forward Guidance ausgeweitet, in dem Sinne, dass nun weitere Institutionen direkt von der Zentralbank beraten werden. Man verfolge das Ziel, das Balance Sheet der Zentralbank wieder zu verringern und gleichzeitig eine vorl\u00e4ufige Projektion der anberaumten Leitzinserh\u00f6hungen zu verlautbaren. All diese Ma\u00dfnahmen sind in der Summe ein signifikanter Kurswechsel in der monet\u00e4ren Politik seiner Zentralbank, selbst wenn zu diesem Termin keine Leitzinserh\u00f6hung beschlossen wurde, so Tiff Mack‘. Probleme sehe man am Immobilienmarkt, welcher durch die niedrigen Kreditzinsen einer sehr starken Nachfrage unterliege. Der \u00d6lpreis sei in den Szenarien der Zentralbank immer als flach einkalkuliert, als immer zum Nachteil des kanadischen Bruttoinlandproduktes gerechnet. Kanada ist ein erd\u00f6lexportierendes Land und ben\u00f6tigt somit einen hohen Erd\u00f6lpreis, damit sich die kostenintensive Schiefer- und Sand\u00f6lgewinnung rentiert.

\nJerome Powell ist \u00e4hnlich optimistisch und m\u00f6chte sein Programm zum Ankauf von Staatsanleihen (Bond Purchase Program) bis Ende M\u00e4rz 2022 beenden. Er betrachtet die Inflation nicht mehr als tempor\u00e4r und \u201atransitory\u2018 wie bislang, sondern sieht die Inflation als Resultat der l\u00e4nger anhaltenden Supply-Chain Zerw\u00fcrfnisse, hervorgerufen durch die Restriktiven Ma\u00dfnahmen zur Eind\u00e4mmung der Pandemie. Man sei jedoch optimistisch, dass die Ma\u00dfnahmen zur Bek\u00e4mpfung der Corona-Pandemie greifen und die \u00d6konomie sich weiter erholen wird. Man sieht auch bei der FED ein Ende des Quantitative Easing f\u00fcr angebracht und verk\u00fcndet eine baldige Erh\u00f6hung seines Leitzinssatzes. Powell weist darauf hin, sein Mandat beinhalte die Preisstabilit\u00e4t zu bewahren, die Zentralbank unterliege dabei keinerlei Einschr\u00e4nkungen bez\u00fcglich der zu generierenden Geldmenge. Jedoch wird die Vollbesch\u00e4ftigung gerne im Verh\u00e4ltnis zur Inflation betrachtet, wo \u00f6konomisch sinnvoll. Dies bedeutet, dass neben der Preisstabilit\u00e4t auch die Vollbesch\u00e4ftigung eine ma\u00dfgebliche Richtgr\u00f6\u00dfe f\u00fcr die FED ist. Damit nat\u00fcrlich auch direkt verkn\u00fcpft, die Gehaltsentwicklung und der Konsum. Ich lese aus seinen S\u00e4tzen heraus, er erwarte von den heimischen U.S. Unternehmen zuk\u00fcnftig die Supply-Chain besser zu sicher, was letztlich bedeutet, dass Intel & Co. ihre Produktion zur\u00fcck in die USA verlagern sollten.

\nDie australische Zentralbank ver\u00f6ffentlichte lediglich ein knappes Statement ohne Pressekonferenz. Etwas entt\u00e4uschend, so ist gerade Sydney sehr bekannt, wenn es um die Kommunikation mit der breiten Masse geht. Bislang war das Team um den Vorsitzenden Loewe sehr vorbildlich und hat au\u00dferordentlich viel f\u00fcr Bildung und Verst\u00e4ndnis monet\u00e4rer Zentralbank-Politik geleistet. Schade also, dass wir dieses mal keine Fragen stellen durften. Im Prinzip aber, rudert Loewe etwas von seinem aggressiven \u201aTapering Stance\u2018 zur\u00fcck. Man m\u00f6chte die Kerninflation zwischen 2 und 3 Prozent sehen. Dazu werde man zwar die Expansion der Zentralbank-Bilanz weiter reduzieren (mehr Tapering), eine Erh\u00f6hung des Leitzinses aber an einem weiteren Anstieg der Kerninflation festmachen. \nInsgesamt gesehen gibt es nun nur noch 2 „Good Doves“, wie ich jene Zentralbanker bezeichne, welche sich vor Inflation f\u00fcrchten und eine aggressive Erh\u00f6hung der Geldmenge nicht wirklich bef\u00fcrworten. Hierzu z\u00e4hle ich Powell (FED), Bailey (Bank of England) und Loewe (Reserve Bank of Australia). Loewe beginnt sich aus diesem Kreise zu entfernen und tendiert nun eher zu einer expansiveren Geldpolitik, relativ gesehen.

\nWeitere Details und Ausblick auf den Exchange wie immer f\u00fcr Premium<\/a> Mitglieder.\n

\nBank of Canada Interest Rate<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Monetary Policy Report<\/a>
\nFED Press conference by Jerome Powell<\/a>
\nStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision<\/a>
\nAustralia Core Inflation<\/a>\n

\nB\u00fcnyamin\n<\/p>\n

\nGood morning traders<\/strong>,
\n\"English\"\nthree major central banks have announced their monetary stances in the past few days. The Bank of Canada on the afternoon of January 26, 2021 and the FED on the evening of the same date. The Reserve Bank of Australia followed this morning with a statement by Philip Loewe (without a press conference).

\nTiff Macklem, Governor of Canada’s central bank, points out that the response to the pandemic has been explicitly. Today, the supply chain shock caused by the anti-pandemic measures is considered to have been largely absorbed. In view of the surprisingly long-lasting high inflation, the key interest rate will have to rise, Macklem believes. The time for emergency measures by the central bank is now over and tightening will begin. To this end, the selective market forward guidance will be expanded in the sense that more other institutions will now be advised directly as well by the central bank. The aim is to reduce the central bank’s balance sheet again and at the same time to announce a preliminary projection of the planned key rate hikes. Taken together, all of these measures represent a significant change of course in the monetary policy of his central bank, even if no rate hike was decided on that date, according to Tiff Mack‘. Problems can be seen in the real estate market, which is subject to very strong demand due to the low interest rates on loans. The oil price is always calculated flat in the central bank’s scenarios, to the detriment of Canada’s gross domestic product. Canada is an oil-exporting country and therefore needs a high oil price so that the cost-intensive shale and sand oil extraction is profitable.

\nJerome Powell is similarly optimistic and wants to end his bond purchase program by the end of March 2022. He no longer sees inflation as temporary and transitory as before, but sees inflation as a result of the longer-lasting supply chain rifts caused by the restrictive measures to contain the pandemic. However, one is optimistic that the measures to combat the corona pandemic will take effect and that the economy will continue to recover. The FED also sees an end to quantitative easing as appropriate and announces an imminent increase in its key interest rate. Powell points out that his mandate includes maintaining price stability, thus therein the central bank is not subject to any restrictions on the amount of money that can be generated. However, full employment is often viewed in relation to inflation where it makes economic sense. This means that, in addition to price stability, full employment is also a key benchmark for the Fed. Of course, this is also directly linked to salary development and consumption. I read between the lines, that he expects the domestic U.S. companies to better secure the supply chain in the future, which ultimately means that Intel & Co. should relocate their production back to the USA.

\nThe Australian central bank published only a brief statement without a press conference. A bit disappointing, Sydney is very popular when it comes to communicating with the public. So far, the team around Chairman Loewe has been very exemplary and has done an extraordinary amount of education and lectures towards understanding monetary central bank policy. So it’s a pity that we weren’t allowed to ask any questions this time. In principle, however, Loewe is rowing back a bit of its aggressive ‚tapering stance‘. One would like to see core inflation between 2 and 3 percent. To this end, although the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet will be further reduced (more tapering), an increase in the key interest rate will be tied to a further rise in core inflation.\nAll in all, there are now only 2 „good doves“, as I call those central bankers who fear inflation and do not really advocate aggressively increasing the money supply. I consider those Good Doves to be three major central bankers, namely Powell (FED), Bailey (Bank of England) and Loewe (Reserve Bank of Australia). Loewe is beginning to move away from this circle and is now tending towards a more expansive monetary policy, relatively speaking.

\nMore details and exchange outlook as always for Premium<\/a> members.\n

\nBank of Canada Interest Rate<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Monetary Policy Report<\/a>
\nFED Press conference by Jerome Powell<\/a>
\nStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision<\/a>
\nAustralia Core Inflation<\/a>\n

\nBen\n<\/p>\n

\n\u304a\u306f\u3088\u3046\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc<\/strong>
\n\"Japanese\"\n\u904e\u53bb\u6570\u65e5\u9593\u30013\u3064\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u304c\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002 2021\u5e741\u670826\u65e5\u306e\u5348\u5f8c\u306e\u30ab\u30ca\u30c0\u9280\u884c\u3068\u540c\u65e5\u306e\u5915\u65b9\u306eFED\u3002 \u30aa\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30ea\u30a2\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u306f\u4eca\u671d\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30ea\u30c3\u30d7\u30fb\u30ed\u30a8\u30d9\u306e\u58f0\u660e\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\uff08\u8a18\u8005\u4f1a\u898b\u306a\u3057\uff09\u3002

\n\u30ab\u30ca\u30c0\u306e\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7dcf\u7763\u3067\u3042\u308bTiffMacklem\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u3078\u306e\u5bfe\u5fdc\u306f\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u5bfe\u7b56\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b5\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306f\u307b\u307c\u5438\u53ce\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u9a5a\u304f\u307b\u3069\u9577\u7d9a\u304d\u3059\u308b\u9ad8\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u91d1\u5229\u306f\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u30de\u30c3\u30af\u30ec\u30e0\u6c0f\u306f\u4fe1\u3058\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7dca\u6025\u63aa\u7f6e\u306e\u6642\u671f\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u3001\u5f15\u304d\u7de0\u3081\u304c\u59cb\u307e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u6a5f\u95a2\u304c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u304b\u3089\u76f4\u63a5\u52a9\u8a00\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3001\u9078\u629e\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u30d5\u30a9\u30ef\u30fc\u30c9\u30ac\u30a4\u30c0\u30f3\u30b9\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u76ee\u7684\u306f\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u518d\u3073\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3059\u308b\u3068\u540c\u6642\u306b\u3001\u8a08\u753b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4e3b\u8981\u5229\u4e0a\u3052\u306e\u4e88\u5099\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002 Tiff Mack\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u63aa\u7f6e\u3092\u7dcf\u5408\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u65e5\u306b\u5229\u4e0a\u3052\u304c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u306b\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5909\u5316\u304c\u898b\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u3001\u4f4e\u91d1\u5229\u3067\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5f37\u3044\u9700\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u554f\u984c\u304c\u898b\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30ab\u30ca\u30c0\u306e\u56fd\u5185\u7dcf\u751f\u7523\u3092\u72a0\u7272\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u4fa1\u683c\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u6a2a\u3070\u3044\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30ab\u30ca\u30c0\u306f\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f38\u51fa\u56fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u304b\u304b\u308b\u9801\u5ca9\u3068\u30b5\u30f3\u30c9\u30aa\u30a4\u30eb\u306e\u63a1\u6398\u3067\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9ad8\u3044\u77f3\u6cb9\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002

\n\u30b8\u30a7\u30ed\u30fc\u30e0\u30fb\u30d1\u30a6\u30a8\u30eb\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308a\u30012022\u5e743\u6708\u672b\u307e\u3067\u306b\u50b5\u5238\u8cfc\u5165\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u3092\u7d42\u4e86\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u3092\u5c01\u3058\u8fbc\u3081\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u63aa\u7f6e\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u5bfe\u6297\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u63aa\u7f6e\u304c\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u304c\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u3067\u3059\u3002 FED\u306f\u307e\u305f\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u91cf\u7684\u7de9\u548c\u306b\u7d42\u6b62\u7b26\u3092\u6253\u3061\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u5dee\u3057\u8feb\u3063\u305f\u5f15\u304d\u4e0a\u3052\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30d1\u30a6\u30a8\u30eb\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u5f7c\u306e\u4f7f\u547d\u306b\u306f\u7269\u4fa1\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306f\u751f\u6210\u3067\u304d\u308b\u91d1\u984d\u306b\u5236\u9650\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u96c7\u7528\u306f\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u306b\u610f\u5473\u306e\u3042\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3068\u306e\u95a2\u9023\u3067\u898b\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3088\u304f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3066\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u96c7\u7528\u3082FRB\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u30d9\u30f3\u30c1\u30de\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u7d66\u4e0e\u306e\u958b\u767a\u3068\u6d88\u8cbb\u306b\u3082\u76f4\u63a5\u95a2\u4fc2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u79c1\u306f\u884c\u9593\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u5f7c\u306f\u56fd\u5185\u306e\u7c73\u56fd\u4f01\u696d\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u306b\u30b5\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u3088\u308a\u5b89\u5168\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b\u306fIntel\uff06Co\u3002\u304c\u751f\u7523\u3092\u7c73\u56fd\u306b\u79fb\u8ee2\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002

\n\u30aa\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30ea\u30a2\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306f\u8a18\u8005\u4f1a\u898b\u306a\u3057\u3067\u7c21\u5358\u306a\u58f0\u660e\u306e\u307f\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5c11\u3057\u6b8b\u5ff5\u306a\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3001\u30b7\u30c9\u30cb\u30fc\u306f\u4e00\u822c\u306e\u4eba\u3005\u3068\u306e\u30b3\u30df\u30e5\u30cb\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u4eba\u6c17\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3001\u30ed\u30a8\u30d9\u4f1a\u9577\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u5dfb\u304f\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u6a21\u7bc4\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u591a\u304f\u306e\u6559\u80b2\u3068\u7406\u89e3\u3092\u884c\u3063\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u8cea\u554f\u3092\u3055\u305b\u3089\u308c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304c\u6b8b\u5ff5\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u539f\u5247\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30ed\u30a8\u30d9\u306f\u305d\u306e\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306a\u300c\u5148\u7d30\u308a\u306e\u59ff\u52e2\u300d\u3092\u5c11\u3057\u5f8c\u9000\u3055\u305b\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30b3\u30a2\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u30922\u301c3\uff05\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u306f\u3055\u3089\u306b\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u304c\uff08\u3088\u200b\u200b\u308a\u5148\u7d30\u308a\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\uff09\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u306f\u30b3\u30a2\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306e\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u4e0a\u6607\u306b\u7d50\u3073\u3064\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\n\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3092\u6050\u308c\u3001\u30de\u30cd\u30fc\u30b5\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u306e\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306a\u5897\u52a0\u3092\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306b\u4e3b\u5f35\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u3068\u547c\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u300c\u826f\u3044\u9ce9\u300d\u306f2\u3064\u3057\u304b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u79c1\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30a6\u30a8\u30eb\uff08FED\uff09\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30ea\u30fc\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u9280\u884c\uff09\u3001\u30ed\u30a8\u30d9\uff08\u30aa\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30ea\u30a2\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff09\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30ed\u30a8\u30d9\u306f\u3053\u306e\u30b5\u30fc\u30af\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u96e2\u308c\u59cb\u3081\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5e83\u7bc4\u306a\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u306b\u5411\u304b\u3046\u50be\u5411\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\n

\n\u30d7\u30ec\u30df\u30a2\u30e0<\/a>\u30e1\u30f3\u30d0\u30fc\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u3068\u898b\u901a\u3057\u306e\u4ea4\u63db\u3002\n

\nBank of Canada Interest Rate<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Monetary Policy Report<\/a>
\nFED Press conference by Jerome Powell<\/a>
\nStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision<\/a>
\nAustralia Core Inflation<\/a>\n

\n\u30d9\u30f3\u30b8\u30e3\u30df\u30f3\n<\/p>\n

\nGoedemorgen handelaren<\/strong>,
\n\"Dutch\"\ndrie grote centrale banken hebben de afgelopen dagen hun monetaire koers bekendgemaakt. De Bank of Canada op de middag van 26 januari 2021 en de FED op de avond van dezelfde datum. De Reserve Bank of Australia volgde vanmorgen met een verklaring van Philip Loewe (zonder persconferentie).

\nTiff Macklem, gouverneur van de centrale bank van Canada, wijst erop dat er expliciet op de pandemie is gereageerd. Vandaag de dag wordt de schok in de toeleveringsketen als gevolg van de antipandemische maatregelen geacht grotendeels te zijn opgevangen. Gezien de verrassend langdurig hoge inflatie zal de beleidsrente omhoog moeten, meent Macklem. De tijd van noodmaatregelen door de centrale bank is nu voorbij en de verkrapping zal beginnen. Hiertoe zal de selectieve market forward guidance worden uitgebreid in die zin dat andere instellingen nu rechtstreeks door de centrale bank worden geadviseerd. Het doel is om de balans van de centrale bank weer te verkleinen en tegelijkertijd een voorlopige projectie van de geplande beleidsrenteverhogingen aan te kondigen. Al deze maatregelen samen vertegenwoordigen volgens Tiff Mack‘ een belangrijke koerswijziging in het monetaire beleid van zijn centrale bank, zelfs als er op die datum geen renteverhoging werd besloten. Er zijn problemen te zien op de vastgoedmarkt, die door de lage rente op leningen onderhevig is aan een zeer sterke vraag. De olieprijs wordt in de scenario’s van de centrale bank altijd vlak berekend, ten koste van het bruto binnenlands product van Canada. Canada is een olie-exporterend land en heeft daarom een \u200b\u200bhoge olieprijs nodig om de kostenintensieve schalie- en zandoliewinning rendabel te maken.

\nJerome Powell is eveneens optimistisch en wil zijn obligatie-aankoopprogramma voor eind maart 2022 be\u00ebindigen. Hij ziet inflatie niet langer als tijdelijk en voorbijgaand als voorheen, maar ziet inflatie als een gevolg van de langdurigere breuken in de toeleveringsketen veroorzaakt door de beperkende maatregelen om de pandemie in te dammen. Wel is men optimistisch dat de maatregelen ter bestrijding van de coronapandemie effect gaan sorteren en dat de economie zich verder zal herstellen. De FED ziet waar nodig ook een einde aan de kwantitatieve versoepeling en kondigt een op handen zijnde verhoging van haar belangrijkste rentetarief aan. Powell wijst erop dat zijn mandaat het handhaven van prijsstabiliteit omvat, dus daarin is de centrale bank niet onderworpen aan enige beperking van de hoeveelheid geld die kan worden gegenereerd. Volledige werkgelegenheid wordt echter vaak gezien in relatie tot inflatie waar dit economisch zinvol is. Dit betekent dat naast prijsstabiliteit ook volledige werkgelegenheid een belangrijke maatstaf is voor de Fed. Uiteraard is dit ook direct gekoppeld aan salarisontwikkeling en consumptie. Ik lees tussen de regels door dat hij verwacht dat de binnenlandse Amerikaanse bedrijven de toeleveringsketen in de toekomst beter zullen beveiligen, wat uiteindelijk betekent dat Intel & Co. hun productie terug naar de VS moet verplaatsen.

\nDe Australische centrale bank publiceerde slechts een korte verklaring zonder persconferentie. Een beetje teleurstellend, Sydney is erg populair als het gaat om communicatie met het publiek. Tot dusverre is het team rond voorzitter Loewe zeer voorbeeldig geweest en heeft het buitengewoon veel onderwijs en begrip van het monetaire beleid van de centrale bank gegeven. Het is dus jammer dat we deze keer geen vragen mochten stellen. In principe roeit Loewe echter een beetje terug van zijn agressieve ‚tapering stance‘. Men zou graag zien dat de kerninflatie tussen de 2 en 3 procent ligt. Hiertoe zal, hoewel de uitbreiding van de balans van de centrale bank verder wordt afgebouwd (meer taps), een stijging van de beleidsrente gekoppeld worden aan een verdere stijging van de kerninflatie.\nAl met al zijn er nu nog maar 2 „goede duiven“, zoals ik die centrale bankiers noem die bang zijn voor inflatie en niet echt pleiten voor een agressieve verhoging van de geldhoeveelheid. Ik ben onder meer Powell (FED), Bailey (Bank of England) en Loewe (Reserve Bank of Australia). Loewe begint deze cirkel te verlaten en neigt nu relatief gezien naar een ruimer monetair beleid.\n

\nMeer details en uitwisselingsvooruitzichten zoals altijd voor Premium<\/a>-leden.\n

\nBank of Canada Interest Rate<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Monetary Policy Report<\/a>
\nFED Press conference by Jerome Powell<\/a>
\nStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision<\/a>
\nAustralia Core Inflation<\/a>\n

\nBenni\n<\/p>\n

\nG\u00fcnayd\u0131n t\u00fcccarlar<\/strong>,
\n\"Turkish\"\n\u00dc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde parasal duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 26 Ocak 2021 \u00f6\u011fleden sonra Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 tarihin ak\u015fam\u0131 FED. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu sabah\u0131 Philip Loewe’un (bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 olmadan) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamayla takip etti.

\nKanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tiff Macklem, pandemiye verilen yan\u0131t\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a verildi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bug\u00fcn, pandemi kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin neden oldu\u011fu tedarik zinciri \u015fokunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde absorbe edildi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Macklem, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede uzun s\u00fcreli y\u00fcksek enflasyon g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kilit faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n acil \u00f6nlem alma s\u00fcresi art\u0131k sona erdi ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ba\u015flayacak. Bu ama\u00e7la, se\u00e7ici piyasa ileriye y\u00f6nelik rehberli\u011fi, di\u011fer kurumlara art\u0131k do\u011frudan merkez bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tavsiyede bulunulmas\u0131 anlam\u0131nda geni\u015fletilecektir. Ama\u00e7, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu tekrar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek ve ayn\u0131 zamanda planlanan kilit faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n projeksiyonunu a\u00e7\u0131klamakt\u0131r. Tiff Mack’e g\u00f6re, birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcm bu \u00f6nlemler, o tarihte herhangi bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na karar verilmemi\u015f olsa bile, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir rota de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini temsil ediyor. Kredi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 nedeniyle olduk\u00e7a yo\u011fun talep g\u00f6ren emlak piyasas\u0131nda sorunlar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilmektedir. Petrol fiyat\u0131, Kanada’n\u0131n gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n zarar\u0131na, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n senaryolar\u0131nda her zaman d\u00fcz olarak hesaplan\u0131r. Kanada petrol ihra\u00e7 eden bir \u00fclkedir ve bu nedenle y\u00fcksek maliyetli \u015fist ve kum ya\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karman\u0131n karl\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bir petrol fiyat\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyar.

\nJerome Powell da benzer \u015fekilde iyimser ve tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 Mart 2022’nin sonuna kadar sona erdirmek istiyor. Art\u0131k enflasyonu eskisi gibi ge\u00e7ici ve ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor, ancak enflasyonu k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu daha uzun s\u00fcreli tedarik zinciri yar\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonucu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler. Ancak, korona salg\u0131n\u0131yla m\u00fccadele \u00f6nlemlerinin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fi ve ekonominin toparlanmaya devam edece\u011fi konusunda iyimseriz. FED ayr\u0131ca niceliksel geni\u015flemeye uygun \u015fekilde bir son vermekte ve kilit faiz oran\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmektedir. Powell, g\u00f6revinin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fine, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretilebilecek para miktar\u0131 \u00fczerinde herhangi bir k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya tabi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bununla birlikte, tam istihdam, genellikle ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011fu durumlarda enflasyonla ili\u015fkili olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu, fiyat istikrar\u0131na ek olarak tam istihdam\u0131n da Fed i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kriter oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Tabii ki, bu ayn\u0131 zamanda maa\u015f geli\u015fimi ve t\u00fcketimi ile do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Sat\u0131r aralar\u0131n\u0131 okudum, yerli ABD \u015firketlerinin gelecekte tedarik zincirini daha iyi g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini, bu da Intel & Co.’nun \u00fcretimlerini ABD’ye geri ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.

\nAvustralya merkez bankas\u0131, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yapmadan sadece k\u0131sa bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Biraz hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan Sydney, halkla ileti\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda \u00e7ok pop\u00fcler. \u015eimdiye kadar, Ba\u015fkan Loewe’nin etraf\u0131ndaki ekip \u00e7ok \u00f6rnek oldu ve ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc miktarda e\u011fitim ve parasal merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bu sefer soru sormam\u0131za izin verilmemesi \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc. Ancak prensipte Loewe, agresif ‚konik duru\u015funu‘ biraz geri al\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonu y\u00fczde 2 ile 3 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6rmek istiyoruz. Bu ama\u00e7la, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunun geni\u015flemesi daha da azalacak (daha da azalacak) olsa da, kilit faiz oran\u0131ndaki bir art\u0131\u015f \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda daha fazla art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011flanacakt\u0131r.\nSonu\u00e7 olarak, enflasyondan korkan ve para arz\u0131n\u0131 agresif bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rmay\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten savunmayan merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131 dedi\u011fim, \u015fimdi sadece 2 „iyi g\u00fcvercin“ var. Powell (FED), Bailey (\u0130ngiltere Bankas\u0131) ve Loewe (Avustralya Rezerv Bankas\u0131) dahil. Loewe bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcden uzakla\u015fmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor ve \u015fimdi nispeten daha geni\u015f bir para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor.\n

\nPremium<\/a> \u00fcyeleri i\u00e7in her zaman oldu\u011fu gibi daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 ve fikir al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi.\n

\nBank of Canada Interest Rate<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem<\/a>
\nBank of Canada Monetary Policy Report<\/a>
\nFED Press conference by Jerome Powell<\/a>
\nStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision<\/a>
\nAustralia Core Inflation<\/a>\n

\nSizin B\u00fcnyamin\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guten Morgen Traders, drei wichtige Zentralbanken haben in den letzten Tagen ihre monet\u00e4re Ausrichtung verk\u00fcndet. Die Bank of Canada am Nachmittag des 26. Januar 2021 und die FED des Abends gleichen Datums. Heute Morgen folgte dann die Reserve Bank of Australia mit einem Statement by Philip Loewe (ohne Pressekonferenz). Tiff Macklem, der Vorsitzende der kanadischen … Central Speaking<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,19],"tags":[247,24,229,248,249,197,25],"class_list":["post-13229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-captain-speaking","category-leitzinsen","tag-boc","tag-fed","tag-interest-rate","tag-loewe","tag-macklem","tag-powell","tag-rba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13229\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}