{"id":13631,"date":"2022-04-03T11:37:53","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T09:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.com\/?p=13631"},"modified":"2022-04-03T11:37:53","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T09:37:53","slug":"oil-and-currencies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=13631","title":{"rendered":"Oil and Currencies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\nGuten Tag Traders<\/strong>,
\n\"German\"\nheute zeige ich Dir den Disconnect unserer beiden „Oillies“, USDCAD und USDNOK. Wie Du den Charts entnehmen kannst, korrelierten beide Paare auf den \u00d6lpreisschock vom 06.M\u00e4rz bis etwa 01.Mai 2020 negativ. Wie ja auch zu erwarten, da ja die \u00d6l-W\u00e4hrung im Nenner zum USD-Z\u00e4hler steht.
\nWichtig f\u00fcr uns ist heute zu sehen, wie sich die neuen \u00d6lpreis-Hochs auf die Paare ausgewirkt haben. Zwar haben die ersten beiden neuen Hochs wie zu erwarten, zu einer korrelativen Preisbewegung gef\u00fchrt, jedoch bricht diese Korrelation bereits ab dem zweiten \u00d6l-Hoch am 06.Juli 2021.
\n\nDanach steigt der \u00d6lpreis weiter und weiter und findet sein erneutes Hoch am 25. Oktober 2021 @85.924 (~800% von seinem \u00d6lpreisschock-Preis Q1+2 2020 je nach Broker zwischen $6.70 und $9.85 per Barrel). Die beiden \u00d6l-W\u00e4hrungen jedoch, finden kein entsprechendes Tief mehr und in der Folge Disconnected die Korrelation komplett. Der Spike des \u00d6lpreises auf @131.779, bedingt durch den Konflikt um die Ukraine (wichtiges Gas-& Erd\u00f6l Transitland zwischen Abnehmerstaaten in Europa und Russland), belastet die W\u00e4hrungspaare noch ein wenig, aber eine relativ gewichtete Korrelation ist nicht mehr gegeben.
\nDies kann im Lichte eines FED-Rate-Hike-Cycles und einer m\u00f6glichen Beruhigung an den \u00d6lm\u00e4rkten eine gute Einstiegschance darstellen. Ich selbst kaufe seit einiger Zeit USDNOK und auch USDCAD Long habe ich j\u00fcngst ins Depot genommen. Das Rational scheint recht simpel, entweder der USD legt zu und\/oder der \u00d6lpreis wird nur schwach bis gar nicht mehr in den beiden Paaren eingepreist.\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n

\nWeitere Details und Ausblick auf den Exchange wie immer f\u00fcr Premium<\/a>-Mitglieder.\n

\nB\u00fcnyamin\n<\/p>\n

\nGoody traders<\/strong>,
\n\"English\"\nToday I show you the disconnect of our two „Crude-Currencies“, USDCAD and USDNOK. As you can see from the charts, both pairs have been negatively correlated to the oil price (best to see at the oil price shock from March 6th to around May 1st, 2020). As expected, since the oil currency is in the denominator of the USD numerator.
\nImportant for us today is to see how the new oil price highs have affected the pairs. As expected, the first two new highs led to a correlative price movement, but this correlation breaks as early as the second oil high on July 6, 2021.
\nAfter that date, the oil price keeps rising and finds its renewed high on October 25, 2021 @85.924 (~800% of its oil price shock price Q1+2 2020 between $6.70 and $9.85 per barrel depending on the broker). However, the two oil currencies no longer find a corresponding low and as a result the correlation completely disconnected. The spike in the oil price to @131.779 caused by the conflict over Ukraine (an important gas and oil transit country between Russia and customer countries in Europe), is still weighing on the currency pairs a little, but there is no longer a relatively weighted correlation.
\nThis may represent a good entry opportunity in light of a FED rate hike cycle and calming down in the oil markets. I myself have been buying USDNOK for some time and recently put USDCAD Long in my portfolio. The rationale seems quite simple, either the USD is gaining and\/or the oil price will further on be only weakly or not at all priced into the two pairs.\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n

\nMore details and my outlook on the Foreign Exchange as always for Premium<\/a> Members.\n

\nSincerely Yours, Ben\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Crude Daily-Chart with price-shock -80% and Tops from the Low @$9.85 per barrel<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
USDCAD Daily-Chart with crude price shock +9% and Lows from the Top @1.4667<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
USDNOK Daily-Chart with crude price shock +30% and Lows from the Top @12.1216<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guten Tag Traders, heute zeige ich Dir den Disconnect unserer beiden „Oillies“, USDCAD und USDNOK. Wie Du den Charts entnehmen kannst, korrelierten beide Paare auf den \u00d6lpreisschock vom 06.M\u00e4rz bis etwa 01.Mai 2020 negativ. Wie ja auch zu erwarten, da ja die \u00d6l-W\u00e4hrung im Nenner zum USD-Z\u00e4hler steht. Wichtig f\u00fcr uns ist heute zu sehen, … Oil and Currencies<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,16,254,9],"tags":[86,87,98,258],"class_list":["post-13631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bigmacfx","category-crude","category-post-invasion","category-premium-teaser","tag-oil","tag-oil-price","tag-usdcad","tag-usdnok"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13631\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}