{"id":15329,"date":"2023-06-18T22:08:50","date_gmt":"2023-06-18T20:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=15329"},"modified":"2023-06-18T23:00:25","modified_gmt":"2023-06-18T21:00:25","slug":"lira-plunge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=15329","title":{"rendered":"Lira-Plunge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Lira-Plunge<\/span><\/h3>\n2023-06-18 22:08:50GMT+2<\/span><\/a>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Guten Abend<\/h4>\n

\n\n\"German\"\n2023-06-01<\/strong>, die Schuldenobergrenze des US-Finanzministeriums wird abermals angehoben, um eine Zahlungsunf\u00e4higkeit der USA abzuwenden.
\n2023-06-02<\/strong>, US Non Farm Payrolls f\u00fcr den Monat Mai kommen unerwartet stark heraus. 339.000 neue Jobs anstatt der prognostizierten 190K! Die Wetten f\u00fcr eine Rate-Hike-Cycle Pause nehmen Fahrt auf.
\n2023-06-06<\/strong>, die Reserve Bank of Australia erh\u00f6ht unerwartet ihren Leitzins von 3.85% auf 4.1% (erwartet: 3.85%).
\n2023-06-13<\/strong>, die Inflation in Deutschland betr\u00e4gt 6.1% vs. 7.2% f\u00fcr den Monat Mai im Vorjahresverleich (-1.1%).
\n2023-06-13<\/strong>, US Core Inflation (Jahresdurchschnitt) f\u00fcr den Monat Mai: 5.3% vs. 5.5% (-0.2% gegen\u00fcber dem Jahresdurchschnitt in April).\nUnited States Inflation Rate (CPI) mit 4% vs. 4.9% deutlich verringert. Peaked-Out? Yes Sir!
\n2023-06-14<\/strong>, FED beh\u00e4lt Leitzins bei 5.25%. Outlook: Hawkish.
\n2023-06-15<\/strong>, EZB erh\u00f6ht Leitzins auf 4.00% (+25 Basispunkte).
\n2023-06-15<\/strong>, die Inflation in Frankreich scheint ihren Zenit erreicht. 5.1% vs. 5.9% f\u00fcr den Monat Mai im Vorjahresverleich (-0.8%).
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, Bank of Japan beh\u00e4lt negativen Leitzins (-0.1%) und YCC (10Y-JGB) bei.
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, in Italien ist definitiv die Inflations-Spitze, mit den 2-stelligen Werten in November\/Dezember\/Januar, \u00fcberschritten. 7.6%\tvs. 8.2% f\u00fcr den Monat Mai im Vorjahresverleich (-0.6%).
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, DAX notiert mit einem Allzeithoch von 16427.1 Punkten!\n

\nDie FED paused ihren Rate-Hike-Cycle! Dennoch mit einem hawkishen stance. Man erwartet zwar weitere Zinserh\u00f6hungen im laufenden Jahr, sowie sich die Inflation sich dem 2%-Ziel-Korridor n\u00e4hert, d\u00fcrften sich dagegen die QE-Schleusen wieder langsam \u00f6ffnen. Tritt dieses Szenario ein, hat die FED alle Macht der Welt. Die Instrumente der Zentralbank (Leitzins, Deposit Rate, Bank Rate, Balance Sheet), die \u00f6konomische Theorie, sie funktionieren somit. F\u00fcr alle nachvollziehbar bewiesen, ein und f\u00fcr allemall! Weltweit haben Zentralbanken jedwede Staatsanleihe aufgekauft. Und wer bezahlt, spielt die Musik!\n

\nDie t\u00fcrkische Lira korreliert negativ mit der B\u00f6rse in Istanbul. Dividende und Rendite locken Gelder in die Lira. Damit diese auch kaufkraftparit\u00e4r gebucht werden k\u00f6nnen, muss die Lira irgendwo stabil eingepreist werden. Nur wo? Mir fehlen Zeit und Zahlen f\u00fcr eine genauere Evaluation. Goldman Sach prognostiziert den USDTRY mit 28.00 auf 12 Monate hinaus. Rein Chart-Technisch besehe ich die Lira bei 23.00-25.00, was in 12 Monaten schmeichelhaft w\u00e4re. Die (Halte-)Margin bei TRY-Positionen ist bei gr\u00f6\u00dferen Brokern verdreifacht worden (Long und Short). Auch die ONR zeigt auff\u00e4llige Fluktuation. Insgesamt muss das nichts b\u00f6ses f\u00fcr die Lira bedeuten, es bedeutet aber, dass das Risiko f\u00fcr die Lira\/BIST~Return sich verschoben hat.\n

\nDer Volatility-Index (SP500) ist auf einem urigen Allzeit-Tief. Etwas scheint seinen Schatten voraus zu werfen…\n

\nHonkey, Donkey, in eigener Sache: Es war ein Alptraum! Ist Dir nicht schon einmal ein Server ausgefallen?!
\nIch habe die Gelegenheit genutzt, um die Webseite nochmal zu verbessern. Meine Web-Projekte sind weiter in progress (MumbleTabloid: Who-is-Who and Worth, BigMacFX: Ableger von MumbleFX Premium, Streamings und Webcast rund um den Forex, Chat-BoT-b4: Chatbots zu verschiedenen Themen, Shadhajuuhpioky: Autobiografische Arbeiten, Schriften und Einblicke).\n

\n\nWeitere Details und einen Ausblick auf den FX Exchange wie immer f\u00fcr Premium<\/a>-Mitglieder.\n<\/span>\n

\nLG Ben\n<\/span>\n<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n

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Goody Traders<\/h4>\n

\n\n\"English\"\n2023-06-01<\/strong>, US Treasury Department debt ceiling raised again to avert US default.
\n2023-06-02<\/strong>, US Non Farm Payrolls for May come out stronger than expected. 339,000 new jobs instead of the forecast 190K! Rate-hike-cycle break bets are picking up steam.
\n2023-06-06<\/strong>, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly increases its key interest rate from 3.85% to 4.1% (expected: 3.85%).
\n2023-06-13<\/strong>, inflation in Germany is 6.1% vs. 7.2% for the month of May yoy (-1.1%).
\n2023-06-13<\/strong>, US core inflation (annual average) for the month of May: 5.3% vs. 5.5% (-0.2% compared to the annual average in April).\nUnited States Inflation Rate (CPI) significantly reduced at 4% vs. 4.9%. peaked out? Yes Sir!
\n2023-06-14<\/strong>, FED keeps interest rate at 5.25%. Outlook: Hawkish.
\n2023-06-15<\/strong>, ECB increases key interest rate to 4.00% (+25 basis points).
\n2023-06-15<\/strong>, inflation in France seems to have peaked. 5.1% vs. 5.9% for the month of May yoy (-0.8%).
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, Bank of Japan keeps policy rate negative (-0.1%) and YCC (10Y-JGB).
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, in Italy the inflation peak has definitely been passed with the 2-digit values in November\/December\/January. 7.6% vs. 8.2% for the month of May yoy (-0.6%).
\n2023-06-16<\/strong>, DAX listed with an all-time high of 16427.1 points!\n

\nThe FED is pausing its rate hike cycle! Still with a hawkish stance. Although further interest rate hikes are expected in the current year, as soon as inflation approaches the 2% target corridor, the QE floodgates should slowly open again. If this scenario occurs, the FED has all the power in the world. The instruments of the central bank (base rate, deposit rate, bank rate, balance sheet), the economic theory, they all work. Proved comprehensibly for everyone, once and for all! Central banks around the world have been buying up every government bond around and around. And whoever pays plays the music!\n

\nThe Turkish lira is negatively correlated with the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Dividends and returns attract funds to the lira. So that these can also be booked in terms of purchasing power parity, the lira must be priced in somewhere stable. But only where? I don’t have the time or numbers for a more detailed evaluation. Goldman Sach forecasts USDTRY at 28.00 12 months out. Purely chart wise I see the lira at 23.00-25.00 which would be flattering in 12 months time. The (holding) margin for TRY positions has been tripled with larger brokers (longs and shorts). The ONR accross many brokers also shows noticeable fluctuations. Overall, this doesn’t have to mean anything bad for the lira, but it does mean that the risk for the lira\/BIST~Return has shifted.\n

\nThe volatility index (SP500) is at an all-time low. Something seems to be casting its shadow ahead…\n

\nHonkey, donkey, on my own behalf: A haunted house! Haven’t you ever experienced a server failure?!
\nI took the opportunity to improve the website (green light) again. My web projects are still in progress (MumbleTabloid: who-is-who and worth, BigMacFX: offshoot of MumbleFX Premium, streamings and webcast around forex, Chat-BoT-b4: chatbots on various topics, Shadhajuuhpioky: autobiographical works, writings and insights).\n

\n\nMore details and my outlook on the FX Exchange as always for Premium<\/a> Members.\n<\/span>\n

\nSincerely Yours, Ben\n<\/span>\n<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n

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MumbleFX Premium<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\"German<\/a>
\nGerman Inflation CPI\n<\/div>\n
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\nUS Core Inflation\n<\/div>\n
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\nFrance Inflation CPI\n<\/div>\n
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\nItaly Inflation CPI\n<\/div>\n
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\nGerman DAX All-Time-High\n<\/div>\n
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\n\"USDTRY<\/a>
\nUSDTRY – Daily Chart\n<\/div>\n
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\n\"Stock<\/a>
\nStock Exchange Istanbul BIST\n<\/div>\n
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\nStock Exchange Istanbul BIST – 25Y Chart\n<\/div>\n
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\n\"Volatility<\/a>
\nVolatility Index SP500 – All-Time-Low\n<\/div>\n
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\n\"Nikkei<\/a>
\nNikkei 225 – H4 Chart\n<\/div>\n
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\nJapanese Yen Index – H4 Chart\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\nExterne Quellen\/Links<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n <\/colgroup>\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t
URL-Link<\/th>\n\t\tBeschreibung<\/th>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t<\/thead>\n\t
Wirtschafts Woche – US Schuldengrenze<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
Trading Economics – Wirtschaftsdaten, Kennzahlen und Indikatoren<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
rba.gov.au – RBoA Lowe: A narrow path<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
Federal Reserve Bank – FOMC statement June 14 2023<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
Bank of Japan – Statement on Monetary Policy June 16 2023<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
CNBC – Goldman Sach on Turkish Lira Jun08<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
JP Morgan – 2023 Market Outlook<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
YouTube – ‚A Narrow Path‘ – Speech by Governor Philip Lowe – 7 June 2023<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
YouTube – FOMC Press Conference, June 14, 2023<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
YouTube – ECB Governing Council Press Conference – 15 June 2023<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t\t
YouTube – Why Japanese Calligraphy Ink Is So Expensive | So Expensive | Insider Business<\/td>\n\t<\/tr>\n\t<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n
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Lira-Plunge 2023-06-18 22:08:50GMT+2 Guten Abend 2023-06-01, die Schuldenobergrenze des US-Finanzministeriums wird abermals angehoben, um eine Zahlungsunf\u00e4higkeit der USA abzuwenden. 2023-06-02, US Non Farm Payrolls f\u00fcr den Monat Mai kommen unerwartet stark heraus. 339.000 neue Jobs anstatt der prognostizierten 190K! Die Wetten f\u00fcr eine Rate-Hike-Cycle Pause nehmen Fahrt auf. 2023-06-06, die Reserve Bank of Australia erh\u00f6ht … Lira-Plunge<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"template-page-builder.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allgemein"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15329"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15339,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15329\/revisions\/15339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}