{"id":15447,"date":"2023-09-11T01:25:49","date_gmt":"2023-09-10T23:25:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=15447"},"modified":"2023-09-11T08:00:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-11T06:00:53","slug":"goody-philip-lowe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=15447","title":{"rendered":"Goody Philip Lowe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Goody Philip Lowe<\/h3>\n2023-09-11 01h:25m:49s GMT+2<\/span><\/a>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Guten Morgen,<\/h4>\n

\n\n\"German\"\n2023-09-05<\/strong>, die RBA beh\u00e4lt ihren Leitzins mit 4.10% gleich.
\n2023-09-06<\/strong>, die BoC beh\u00e4lt ihren Leitzins mit 5.00% gleich.
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\n„[…] Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks“, so die Bank of Australia.\n
\nKeine gro\u00dfe \u00dcberraschung, \u00e4hnliches so denn liest sich in einem vorherigen Statement zur australischen Geldpolitik. Wir erhalten mit dem „Chartpack“ (Graphs on the Australian Economy and Financial Markets) vom 2023-09-06 einen umfassenden \u00dcberblick, zu den im zweiten Halbsatz angedeuteten „Risiken“.\n
\nDer australische Dollar ist eine klassische Commodity-W\u00e4hrung, welche vom Bedarf (zumeist Chinas) an Eisen-Erz, Gold, Getreide-Weizen, Kupfer, Nickel, Aluminium und Zink abh\u00e4ngig ist. Aber auch Energietr\u00e4ger wie Steinkohle (16%), Erdgas (11%) und Roh\u00f6l (1%) haben einen gewichtigen Exportanteil. Gerade das Supply aus den Goldminen kann einen Einfluss auf die Kaufkraftparit\u00e4t und den Exchange haben. \u00c4u\u00dferst wichtig f\u00fcr den China-Anreiner ist die Welt\u00f6konomie, welche den Bedraf der Chinesen an diesen Produkten speist.\n
\nSomit ist der AUD zugleich eine Risk On\/Off W\u00e4hrung im Sinne einer positiven Korrelation mit den M\u00e4rkten. Mitte 2013 dann die direkte Intervention zur Schw\u00e4chung der Exportw\u00e4hrung. Seither hatte das Land eine negative Handelsbilanz bis 2020 das Breakeven erreicht wurde. Mit der Covid-Pandemie und der einhergehenden Abwehrma\u00dfnahmen, sprang das Balance-Sheet um das dreifache auf ca. 575 Billionen AUD, daf\u00fcr ist das Debt\/GDP vergleichsweise niedrig (25% vs Deutschland 66% vs USA 129%) und die FX-Reserven auf einem Allzeit-Hoch. Insgesamt ist der AUD keine Safe-Heaven-W\u00e4hrung, keine Risk-Off Flucht-W\u00e4hrung, aber daf\u00fcr ein robustes Instrument der australischen \u00d6konomie. Ja und dazu sollen W\u00e4hrungen auch dienen, um der zugrunde liegenden Wirtschaft einen formidablen N\u00e4hrboden zu schaffen.\n
\nHut ab, Mr Lowe, Job done! Der RBA Vorsitzende gab am 2023-09-07 seine Abschieds-Rede und gibt nach regul\u00e4rer 7-j\u00e4hriger Amtszeit den Zentralbankvorsitz vakant.\n

\n„[…] With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank\u2019s balance sheet. However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed“.\n
\nDie Bank of Canada mit ihrem Vorsitzenden Tiff Macklem kommt zu einer vergleichbaren Determinante und beh\u00e4lt so ihren Leitzins weiterhin bei 5%. Auch hier schliesst man eine weitere Anhebung zur Abwehr eine Inflationsspirale nicht kategorisch aus. Eine Geldverknappung bzw. Balance-sheet Normalisierung sei bereits im Gange.\n

\n\nWeitere Details und einen Ausblick auf den FX Exchange wie immer f\u00fcr Premium<\/a>-Mitglieder.\n<\/span>\n

\nLG Ben\n<\/span>\n<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n

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Goody Traders<\/h4>\n

\n\n\"English\"\n2023-09-05<\/strong>, the RBA is keeping its key interest rate the same at 4.10%.
\n2023-09-06<\/strong>, the BoC keeps its key interest rate the same at 5.00%.
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\n„[…] Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks,“ said the Bank of Australia.\n
\nNo big surprise, something similar can be read in a previous statement on Australian monetary policy. With the \u201cChartpack\u201d (Graphs on the Australian Economy and Financial Markets) from 2023-09-06 we get a comprehensive overview of the \u201crisks\u201d indicated in the second half of the sentence.\n
\nThe Australian dollar is a classic commodity currency, which one depends on the demand (mostly from China) for iron ore, gold, grain wheat, copper, nickel, aluminum and zinc. But energy sources such as coal (16%), natural gas (11%) and crude oil (1%) also have an important export share. The supply from the gold mines in particular can have an influence on purchasing power parity and the exchange. What is extremely important for an economy next to China is the health of the world economy, which feeds the Chinese economy more directly and visa versa the demand for Australian export goods.\n
\nThe AUD is therefore also a risk on\/off currency in the sense of a positive correlation with the markets. Then in mid-2013 there was direct intervention to weaken the export currency. Since, the country had a negative trade balance until breakeven was reached in 2020. With the Covid pandemic and the associated counter measures, the central balance sheet jumped threefold to around AUD 575 trillion, but with goverment Debt\/GDP comparatively low (25% vs Germany 66% vs USA 129%) and FX reserves at an all-time high, the fundamentals are in pretty good shape. Overall, the AUD is not a safe haven currency, not a risk-off escape currency, but it is a robust instrument serving its very Australian economy.\n
\nYes, that’s what currencies are supposed to do: to create a formidable breeding ground for the underlying economy.\n
\nRespect and much Love&Spirit to Mr Lowe, job done! The RBA chairman gave his farewell speech on 2023-09-07, announcing the vacancy for the central bank chair after a regular 7-year term.\n

\n„[…] With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank\u2019s balance sheet. However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed“.\n
\nThe Bank of Canada, with its chairman Tiff Macklem, comes to a comparable determinant and keeps its key interest rate at 5%. Here, too, a further increase to ward off an inflationary spiral is not categorically ruled out. However, a tightening of the money supply, thus a normalization of the balance sheet is said to be underway.\n

\n\nMore details and my outlook on the FX Exchange as always for Premium<\/a> Members.\n<\/span>\n

\nSincerely Yours, Ben\n<\/span>\n<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n

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