{"id":7809,"date":"2021-05-28T20:20:42","date_gmt":"2021-05-28T18:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.com\/?p=7809"},"modified":"2021-05-28T20:20:42","modified_gmt":"2021-05-28T18:20:42","slug":"neue-yen-strategie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=7809","title":{"rendered":"Neue Yen-Strategie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Guten Abend Traders,
\n\"\"\nich erwartete eigentlich eine echte Konsolidierung an den M\u00e4rkten, allen voran am japanischem Aktienindex Nikkei. Nun scheinen aber die $4.8 Billionen Covid-19 Stimulus ihre Eigendynamik zu entwickeln. Die Rede ist bereits von Tapering! F\u00fcr diejenigen, die nicht wissen was das im FX bedeutet, verweise ich am besten auf den USDJPY ab Oktober 2012. Die Situation ist, der JPY muss noch lange nicht aufwerten, denn der negativ korrelierte Nikkei notierte fr\u00fcher bereits H\u00f6her und neben anderen Indices die Allzeithochs zeichnen, liegt der Nikkei noch weit zur\u00fcck! Ein Wochenschlusskurs unter Support 2 ist bislang nicht eingetreten. Ich hatte bereits fr\u00fcher einen Wochenschlusskurs unter S3 als Voraussetzung f\u00fcr eine substanzielle Konsolidierung gesetzt.
\nEine Power-Hausse ist nicht mehr auszuschlie\u00dfen, neben einer Realmarkt-Rezession, welche im Hintergrund schwelen w\u00fcrde. Ich sehe kaum noch ein Szenario, nach dem j\u00fcngst erlebten „France-Buy-Only-Buy“, Sleepy-Biden-$4.8 Billionen-Stimuli, FED-2%-Inflation-Overshoot, einer globalen Zentralbank Fiat-Geldschwemme die alles bis runter zu BB- Papieren\/Unternehmen aufkauft; wie hier, die M\u00e4rkte nochmal substanziell abwerten k\u00f6nnten. \n
Ehlich gesagt, w\u00fcrde dieses Szenario entgegen meiner aktuellen Ausrichtung, die zun\u00e4chst eine substanzielle Konsolidierung erwartet, einem Lauf in das offene Messer gleich kommen. Daher begann ich mittlerweile strategisch meine JPY Longs zu relativeren und auf einen Nikkei-Supra-Flush hin auszurichten. Ich m\u00f6chte auf jeden Fall vermeiden, in einen Margin-Fight versus Supra-Fluidem Fiat Money zu geraten.\nSelbst wenn der USD durch das Tapering aufwertet, bis hinauf zur Emerging-Market-Schmerzgrenze (~101 USDx), bedeutet dies erst einmal einen Kantersieg f\u00fcr die Powell’sche Geldpolitik und die M\u00e4rkte als Ganzes, was das Risk-On nochmal befeuern wird.\n
Ein Erd\u00f6lpreis \u00fcber $100\/Barrel ist kaum ein Limiter f\u00fcr diese Hausse, wenn dies \u00fcberhaupt nochmal eintreten sollte. Vielmehr bedeutet ein zu hoher Preis f\u00fcr Crude, das die OPEC strukturelle Balance-Probleme hat und daher Erd\u00f6l k\u00fcnstlich verknappen musste (vgl. auch neuer kalter Krieg).\n
Gold d\u00fcrfte im neuen Normal der B\u00f6rsen-Allzeit-Hochs weiterhin als Transit-Instrument in Richtung Real-Estate dienen. \u00dcber $1500\/Unze bleibt Gold ohne Zweifel Bullish.
\nDetaillierte Trades und Strategien findet ihr wie gewohnt auf MumbleFX Premium. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Good evening traders,
\n\"\"\nI was actually expecting real consolidation in the markets, especially in the Japanese Nikkei stock index. Now the $ 4.8 trillion Covid-19 stimulus seems to be developing its own momentum. We are already talking about tapering! For those who do not know what that means in FX, I would best refer to the USDJPY from October 2012. The situation is that the JPY does not need to appreciate midterm anyhow, because the negatively correlated Nikkei was already priced higher and, along with other indices, its all-time highs draw, the Nikkei is still underperforming! A weekly closing rate under Support 2 has not yet occurred. I had previously set a weekly closing rate below S3 as a prerequisite for any substantial consolidation.
\nA power boom can no longer be ruled out, alongside a real market recession, which would smolder in the background. I hardly see a scenario after the recently experienced „France-Buy-Only-Buy!“, Sleepy Biden $ 4.8 trillion stimuli, FED 2% inflation overshoot, a global central bank fiat money glut that is all down to it Buying BB- papers \/ companies; like here, the markets could substantially devalue again.\n
To be honest, contrary to my current orientation, which initially expects substantial consolidation, this scenario would be tantamount to a run in the open knife. So I started to strategically align my JPY longs with a Nikkei-Supra-Flush. I definitely want to avoid getting into a margin fight versus Supra-Powerful Fiat Money.\nEven if the USD appreciates due to the tapering, up to the emerging market pain threshold (~ 101 USDx), this means a runaway victory for Powell’s monetary policy and the markets as a whole, which will fuel the risk-on additionally.\n
An oil price above $ 100 \/ barrel is hardly a limiter for this bull market, if it should materialize again. Rather, a too high a price for crude means that OPEC has structural balance problems and therefore had to artificially reduce crude supply (see also new cold war).\n
Gold should continue to serve as a transit instrument in the direction to real estate within the new normal of the stock market all-time highs. Over $ 1500 \/ ounce, gold will undoubtedly remain bullish.\n
As usual, you can find detailed trades and strategies on MumbleFX Premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\"\"\n\u79c1\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u7279\u306b\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u682a\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\u306e\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306a\u7d71\u5408\u3092\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u30014.8\u5146\u30c9\u30eb\u306eCovid-19\u523a\u6fc0\u306f\u3001\u72ec\u81ea\u306e\u52e2\u3044\u3092\u5897\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u3059\u3067\u306b\u5148\u7d30\u308a\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8a71\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff01 FX\u3067\u305d\u308c\u304c\u4f55\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u4eba\u306f\u30012012\u5e7410\u6708\u304b\u3089USDJPY\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u4e00\u756a\u3067\u3059\u3002\u8ca0\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u306f\u3059\u3067\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u6307\u6570\u3001\u305d\u306e\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u5f15\u304f\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u306f\u307e\u3060\u30a2\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff01\u30b5\u30dd\u30fc\u30c82\u306e\u4e0b\u3067\u306e\u9031\u6b21\u7d42\u5024\u306f\u307e\u3060\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306a\u7d71\u5408\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u9031\u6b21\u306e\u6210\u7d04\u7387\u3092S3\u672a\u6e80\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002
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\u91d1\u306f\u3001\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u306e\u65b0\u5e38\u614b\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u3078\u306e\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3059\u901a\u904e\u624b\u6bb5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5f15\u304d\u7d9a\u304d\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002 1500\u30c9\u30eb\/\u30aa\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u91d1\u306f\u9593\u9055\u3044\u306a\u304f\u5f37\u6c17\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \n
\u3044\u3064\u3082\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001MumbleFX\u30d7\u30ec\u30df\u30a2\u30e0\u3067\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u53d6\u5f15\u3068\u6226\u7565\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guten Abend Traders, ich erwartete eigentlich eine echte Konsolidierung an den M\u00e4rkten, allen voran am japanischem Aktienindex Nikkei. Nun scheinen aber die $4.8 Billionen Covid-19 Stimulus ihre Eigendynamik zu entwickeln. Die Rede ist bereits von Tapering! F\u00fcr diejenigen, die nicht wissen was das im FX bedeutet, verweise ich am besten auf den USDJPY ab Oktober … Neue Yen-Strategie<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,107,183,184,7],"tags":[108,148,176],"class_list":["post-7809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude","category-equities","category-gold","category-nikkei","category-trading-signal-free","tag-nikkei","tag-usdjpy","tag-yen"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7809\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}