{"id":7987,"date":"2021-06-23T00:10:59","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T22:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mumblefx.com\/?p=7987"},"modified":"2021-06-23T00:10:59","modified_gmt":"2021-06-22T22:10:59","slug":"risk-on-%e2%88%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/?p=7987","title":{"rendered":"Risk-On \u221e"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Guten Morgen Traders,
\n\"\"\ndie M\u00e4rkte absorbieren gerade unaussprechliches. Eine nie dagewesene Geldschwemme. Wir haben seit 2015 negative Leitzinsen (SNB), sahen einen negativen \u00d6lpreis und zeichnen fortlaufend neue Allzeit-Hochs an den B\u00f6rsen. Dahingehend zeigen die Indikatoren noch ein recht gesundes, funktionales Umfeld.
\nHistorical 10Y-1Y Spread on Treasury Yield @1.41%
\nHistorical 10Y-2Y Spread on Treasury Yield @1.23%
\nJeweils im August 2019 sahen wir einen invertierten, bzw. nahezu invertierten Treasury Yield Spread, was den letzten sieben Rezessionen vorangegangen ist.
\nNur der FED \/ Zentralbank Pump mit Niedrigleitzinsen und Quantitativ Easing kann einen Kollaps vereiteln. Ein umsichtiges Tapering k\u00f6nnte daher die NASDAQ in die Region um 16.000 bis 17.300 Punkte, respektive den Nikkei auf 33.500 bis 36.300 katapultieren.
\nEine Konsolidierung wird es aber immer geben, wenn schon nicht einen Aktien-Crash, was durch die „Buy-Only“ Doktrin ohnehin limitiert sein w\u00fcrde.
\nIn der Summe bleibt uns als Forex Trader nur die Option, durch JPY Longs auf eine Konsolidierung zu setzen, um sodann aggressiver in Richtung JPY Short positionieren zu k\u00f6nnen. In diesem Zuge beobachten wir genaustens die Risk-On\/Off Pairs, wie AUDJPY oder CHFJPY und versuchen unser Risiko kontinuierlich einzugrenzen.<\/p>\n

Good morning traders,
\n\"\"\nthe markets are just absorbing the unspeakable. An unprecedented glut of money. We have had negative key interest rates (SNB) since 2015, saw a negative oil price and are constantly drawing new all-time highs on the stock markets. In this respect, the indicators still show a very healthy, functional environment.
\nHistorical 10Y-1Y Spread on Treasury Yield @ 1.41%
\nHistorical 10Y-2Y Spread on Treasury Yield @ 1.23%
\nIn August 2019 we saw an inverted or almost inverted Treasury Yield Spread, which preceded the last seven recessions.
\nOnly the FED \/ central bank pump with low interest rates and quantitative easing can thwart a collapse. Careful tapering could therefore catapult the NASDAQ into the region by 16,000 to 17,300 points and the Nikkei to 33,500 to 36,300 points.
\nThere will always be a consolidation, if not a stock crash, which would be limited by the „buy-only“ doctrine.
\nAll in all, as forex traders, we only have the option to focus on consolidation through JPY longs in order to then position more aggressively on JPY shorts. In this context, we closely monitor the risk-on \/ off pairs, such as AUDJPY or CHFJPY, and try to limit our risk continuously.<\/p>\n

\u304a\u306f\u3088\u3046\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u3001
\n\"\"\n\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u8a00\u8449\u3067\u306f\u8a00\u3044\u8868\u305b\u306a\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3092\u5438\u53ce\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3059\u3002\u524d\u4f8b\u306e\u306a\u3044\u304a\u91d1\u306e\u904e\u5270\u3002 2015\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u91d1\u5229\uff08SNB\uff09\u304c\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3001\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u3067\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u70b9\u3067\u3001\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u4f9d\u7136\u3068\u3057\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5065\u5168\u3067\u6a5f\u80fd\u7684\u306a\u74b0\u5883\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u904e\u53bb\u306e10\u5e74\u304b\u30891\u5e74\u306e\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9@ 1.41\uff05
\n\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u904e\u53bb\u306e10\u5e74\u304b\u30892\u5e74\u306e\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9@ 1.23\uff05
\n2019\u5e748\u6708\u3001\u904e\u53bb7\u56de\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306b\u5148\u7acb\u3063\u3066\u3001\u9006\u307e\u305f\u306f\u307b\u307c\u9006\u306e\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9\u304c\u898b\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002
\n\u4f4e\u91d1\u5229\u3068\u91cf\u7684\u7de9\u548c\u3092\u5099\u3048\u305fFED \/\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u30dd\u30f3\u30d7\u3060\u3051\u304c\u5d29\u58ca\u3092\u963b\u6b62\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u614e\u91cd\u306b\u30c6\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u3092\u4ed8\u3051\u308b\u3068\u3001NASDAQ\u304c16,000\u301c17,300\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u304c33,500\u301c36,300\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u4e0a\u6607\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u682a\u4fa1\u66b4\u843d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u5e38\u306b\u7d71\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u300c\u8cfc\u5165\u306e\u307f\u300d\u306e\u6559\u7fa9\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5236\u9650\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002
\n\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5916\u56fd\u70ba\u66ff\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u5186\u306e\u30b7\u30e7\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u3088\u308a\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306b\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3068\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u5186\u306e\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u7d71\u5408\u306b\u8ced\u3051\u308b\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3057\u304b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001AUDJPY\u3084CHFJPY\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30aa\u30f3\/\u30aa\u30d5\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u6ce8\u610f\u6df1\u304f\u76e3\u8996\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u7d99\u7d9a\u7684\u306b\u5236\u9650\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/ p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/investing\/quantitative-easing-qe\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.gurufocus.com\/yield_curve.php<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
NASDAQ Allzeit-Hoch @1489.90<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
Nikkei 225<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guten Morgen Traders, die M\u00e4rkte absorbieren gerade unaussprechliches. Eine nie dagewesene Geldschwemme. Wir haben seit 2015 negative Leitzinsen (SNB), sahen einen negativen \u00d6lpreis und zeichnen fortlaufend neue Allzeit-Hochs an den B\u00f6rsen. Dahingehend zeigen die Indikatoren noch ein recht gesundes, funktionales Umfeld. Historical 10Y-1Y Spread on Treasury Yield @1.41% Historical 10Y-2Y Spread on Treasury Yield @1.23% … Risk-On \u221e<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,107,184],"tags":[112,161,188,130,108,189],"class_list":["post-7987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bigmacfx","category-equities","category-nikkei","tag-hausse","tag-jpy","tag-konsolidierung","tag-nasdaq","tag-nikkei","tag-riskon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7987\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mumblefx.co.uk\/wpclients\/wpclient003\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}