L-P-owe-ll
2023-07-09 18:19:03GMT+2Guten Abend
2023-07-04, Die RBA behält ihren Leitzins unberührt bei 4.10%.
Philip Lowe gab seine Rede ‚A Narrow Path‘ am 2023-06-07 bei der Morgan Stanley 5th Australia Summit gleich für beide Leitzinsentscheidungen. Alles Gesagte trifft genau so auch auf diese (Leitzinsentscheidung) vom 2023-07-04 zu.
Man kann die Furcht vor einer Lohn-Preisspirale einfach aus dem Statement zur Leitzinsentscheidung herauslesen, Zitat:
„Wages growth has picked up in response to the tight labour market and high inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.
The Board remains alert to the risk that expectations of ongoing high inflation will contribute to larger increases in both prices and wages, especially given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the still very low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.“
[Quelle: rba.gov.au]
Eine Lohnsteigerung ist laut FED Vorsizenden Powell durchaus erwünscht, aber erst wenn sich die Inflationsrate wieder im Zielkorridor eingependelt hat.
Ich gebe Ihnen einen Ausschnitt aus Philips Rede, der nahtlos an einen Auszug aus der FED-Anhörung vor dem Bankenausschuss des US-Senats vom 2023-03-07 angehängt ist (HINWEIS! die neueste banking.senate.gov – AUSSCHUSSANHÖRUNG fand am 2023-06-22 statt).
Der harsche Vorwurf der Senatorin Elizabeth Warren, Powell drehe kaltblütig die Zinsschraube und riskiere so erbarmungslos die Arbeitslosigkeit vieler Millionen von U.S.-Bürgern, liegt in der Luft. Powell konnte sich einer Therorie-fernen Senatorin gegenüber nicht rechtfertigen und wirkte dadurch etwas barsch. Er gab sich zuvor alle Mühe, Zusammenhänge zu erhellen und den progressive Willen der FED zu unterstreichen.
Klare Unterstützung erhält Jerome aus Downunder-Australia, durch den RBA-Vorsitzenden Philip Lowe. Eingangs zu seiner Rede ‚A Narrow Path‘, äußert er keinerlei Scheu, das Mittel der Leitzinsen zur Bekämpfung der Inflation einsetzen zu wollen. Die Notwendigkeit einer Preisstabilität sei dringende Voraussetzung zum Erhalt von Arbeitsplätzen. Die Federal Reserve selbst hat sich freiwillig zu ihrem Mandat der Preisstabilität eine maximale Beschäftigungsquote zum Ziel gesetzt.
Zusammengefasst sind wir in einer wait-and-see Situation, welcher einige wenige moderate Leitzinsanhebungen folgen sollen.
Weitere Details und einen Ausblick auf den FX Exchange wie immer für Premium-Mitglieder.
LG Ben
Goody Traders
2023-07-04, The RBA keeps its policy rate untouched at 4.10%.
Philip Lowe gave his speech ‚A Narrow Path‘ on 2023-06-07 at the Morgan Stanley 5th Australia Summit for both interest rate decisions. Everything that has been said also applies to the current ones (key interest rate decision of 2023-07-04).
One can easily read out the fear of a wage-price spiral from the statement on the key interest rate decision, quote:
„Wages growth has picked up in response to the tight labour market and high inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up.
The Board remains alert to the risk that expectations of ongoing high inflation will contribute to larger increases in both prices and wages, especially given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the still very low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.“
[Source: rba.gov.au]
According to Fed Chairman Powell, a wage increase is definitely desirable, but only when the inflation rate has settled back into the target corridor (around 2%).
I give you a snippet of Philip’s speech attached seamlessly to an excerpt of the FED hearing at the U.S. Senate Banking Committee dated 2023-03-07 (NOTE! the most recent banking.senate.gov – COMMITTEE HEARING has been held on 2023-06-22).
The harsh accusation by Senator Elizabeth Warren that Powell is cold-bloodedly raising interest rates and thus mercilessly risking the unemployment of many millions of US citizens is in the air. Unable to justify himself to a non-economic senator, Powell came off as a bit harsh. Before that, he made every effort to clarify the whole context and to underline the progressive will of the FED.
Jerome has clear support from downunder Australia as RBA chairman Philip Lowe kicks in with his ’narrow path‘. At the beginning of his speech ‚A Narrow Path‘, he expressed readyness about wanting to use interest rates to fight inflation. The need for price stability is an urgent prerequisite for preserving jobs. The Federal Reserve itself has voluntarily set itself the goal of maximum employment as part of its price stability mandate.
In summary, we are in a wait-and-see situation, which should be followed by a few moderate rate hikes.
More details and my outlook on the FX Exchange as always for Premium Members.
Sincerely Yours, Ben
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